the health strategist
research institute
for strategic health transformation
and digital health
Joaquim Cardoso MSc.
Chief Research & Strategy Officer (CRSO),
Chief Editor and Senior Advisor
August 31, 2023
Book description
The power of the ever-increasing tools and algorithms for prediction and their paradoxical effects on risk.
The Age of Prediction is about two powerful, and symbiotic, trends:
- the rapid development and use of artificial intelligence and big data to enhance prediction, as well as
- the often paradoxical effects of these better predictions on our understanding of risk and the ways we live.
Beginning with dramatic advances in quantitative investing and precision medicine, this book explores how predictive technology is quietly reshaping our world in fundamental ways, from crime fighting and warfare to monitoring individual health and elections.
As prediction grows more robust, it also alters the nature of the accompanying risk, setting up unintended and unexpected consequences.
The Age of Prediction details how predictive certainties can bring about complacency or even an increase in risks
- genomic analysis might lead to unhealthier lifestyles or
- a GPS might encourage less attentive driving.
With greater predictability also comes a degree of mystery, and the authors ask how narrower risks might affect markets, insurance, or risk tolerance generally.
Can we ever reduce risk to zero? Should we even try? This book lays an intriguing groundwork for answering these fundamental questions and maps out the latest tools and technologies that power these projections into the future, sometimes using novel, cross-disciplinary tools to map out cancer growth, people’s medical risks, and stock dynamics.
Key points:
Data Tsunami: The digitization of human life has led to an explosion of data. This massive amount of data has become the foundation for predictive algorithms to identify patterns and make accurate predictions.
Advanced Statistical Techniques: New statistical techniques have emerged that can effectively analyze the vast amount of data. These techniques enable algorithms to uncover complex patterns and correlations that were previously difficult to detect.
Computing Power: The significant drop in the cost of computing power, facilitated by new hardware like Nvidia’s V100 chip, has made it feasible to apply sophisticated algorithms to large datasets quickly and efficiently.
The book goes on to discuss the wide-ranging implications of predictive algorithms across various fields, from scientific breakthroughs to industries like insurance, arms, and politics.
It mentions how predictive algorithms based on genetic data are becoming increasingly powerful, potentially raising ethical and privacy concerns.
The authors also address potential challenges and paradoxes that arise with the increasing predictive capabilities of algorithms.
They question whether predictive modeling can handle the complexities of human behavior and adaptability.
Moreover, they raise concerns about the loss of privacy as algorithms become more invasive in collecting data for predictions.
The book also discusses a profound paradox: If everything becomes predictable due to advanced algorithms, the concept of free will and uncertainty could diminish.
The authors prompt readers to consider whether true predictive capacity eliminates all other paths to the future, potentially leading to a fundamental shift in our understanding of human agency and decision-making.
Overall, the central message underscores the transformative nature of predictive algorithms, their potential benefits, and the complex ethical and philosophical questions they raise as they reshape various aspects of our lives and the world around us.
Some background information:
In 2016, the public’s attention was drawn to significant developments in the field of AI when Google DeepMind’s AlphaGo defeated the reigning world champion in the game of Go.
Building on this, four years later, Google’s AlphaFold achieved a major feat in modern biology by successfully predicting the intricate molecular structures that proteins form, using only the sequence of their constituent amino acids.
Adding to these advancements, in the past year, OpenAI’s ChatGPT was publicly introduced. This marked the beginning of a series of Large Language Models with astonishing capabilities to engage in human-like conversations.
These models have even surpassed the renowned Turing test, known for assessing a machine’s ability to exhibit human-level intelligence in communication.
The Age of Prediction
Algorithms, AI, and the Shifting Shadows of Risk
By Igor Tulchinsky and Christopher E. Mason
MIT Press
