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January 5, 2024
This executive summary is based on the article “Visualizing 2024: Trends to Watch”, published by Council on Foreign Relations and written by Matthew P. Goodman, Kat Duffy, Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Liana Fix, and Will Freeman, on December 13, 2023.
What is the message?
As we approach 2024, five experts from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) use charts, graphs, and maps to highlight crucial global trends.
These include the shifting economic dynamics in the Asia-Pacific, the rise of digital threats to elections, China’s expanding port investments, the surge of right-wing parties in Europe, and the changing composition of migrants arriving at the U.S. border.
ONE PAGE SUMMARY
What are the key points?
U.S. Economic Influence in the Asia-Pacific:
- China surpasses the U.S. in free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific.
- The U.S. absence from major trade pacts impacts its economic leverage.
- The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework’s future remains uncertain.
Digital Threats to 2024 Elections:
- Nearly 80 countries with four billion people will hold elections in 2024.
- Meta discloses over 200 coordinated online influence operations.
- Growing AI tools and global digital platforms intensify electoral risks.
China’s Push Into Foreign Ports:
- China invests in 92 overseas port projects with naval potential.
- Chinese ownership in global ports poses challenges to trade flows.
- Backlash in the West over national security concerns affects projects.
Right on the Rise in Europe:
- Right-wing and far-right parties gain traction across Europe.
- Elections in 2024 may see increased support for Euroskeptic parties.
- Coalition dynamics limit far-right influence in the European Parliament.
The New Mix of Migrants to the U.S. Border:
- Irregular migration to the U.S.-Mexico border hits a record 2.5 million.
- Migration diversifies, including Africans, Asians, and those from South America.
- Shifting trend lines challenge border officials and call for new solutions.
What are the key statistics?
- China has 92 overseas port projects.
- The U.S. lags in Asia-Pacific free trade agreements.
- Nearly 80 countries face elections in 2024.
- Meta discloses 200+ online influence operations.
- 2.5 million migrants at the U.S. border in FY2023.
What are the key examples?
- China’s dominance in RCEP and CPTPP.
- Meta’s tracking of inauthentic behavior.
- China’s port investments globally.
- Far-right parties’ electoral gains in Europe.
- Surge of migrants from diverse regions.
Conclusion
As 2024 unfolds, geopolitical, economic, and societal shifts pose challenges and opportunities.
The U.S. faces competition in the Asia-Pacific, democracies combat digital threats, China expands its global port influence, Europe grapples with right-wing ascendance, and the U.S. border copes with a diverse influx of migrants.
Addressing these trends requires strategic and collaborative efforts on both national and international levels.
To read the original publication, click here.
