Health and Tech Institute (HTI)
research and strategy institute
for continuous transformation
ONE PAGE SUMMARY
Joaquim Cardoso MSc
Chief Research and Editor,
Chief Strategy Officer (CSO) and Senior Advisor
ONE PAGE SUMMARY
Generative AI and pandemic-induced workplace shifts are expected to lead to a new era of faster productivity growth in advanced economies. However, it may take a decade or more to fully realize these benefits.
- The Conference Board predicts that productivity growth will be weak in mature economies, citing rising capital costs and economic/geopolitical uncertainty as challenges.
- Economists believe that the investment in AI and various workplace trends, along with the eventual benefits of AI, will produce significant results in terms of productivity.
- However, they acknowledge that implementing and adapting to these changes will take time and resources.
The potential breakthroughs in AI, particularly involving large-language models, have the potential to enhance efficiency and growth by eliminating tedious tasks in the workplace.
- Historical examples show that it often takes a long time for companies to adapt to new technologies and for meaningful productivity pay-offs to materialize.
Some studies suggest that generative AI can have transformative effects, such as doubling the speed of coding, reducing writing task times, and increasing call center productivity by 14%.
- Investment banks are encouraging clients to invest in generative AI, as they believe it can contribute to a broader “productivity revolution” comparable to the introduction of personal computers.
The creation of new companies, driven by shifts from city centers to suburban remote working hotspots, is expected to contribute to productivity growth.
- However, potential challenges such as rising interest rates and banking turbulence need to be navigated.
There is some skepticism about whether labor shortages alone will drive innovation, as it may also lead to a decline in new ideas.
- The impact of technological breakthroughs on productivity is often difficult to predict accurately.
This is a One Page Summary of the article “Generative AI’s ‘productivity revolution’ will take time to pay off”, published on the Financial Times”.
Generative AI’s ‘productivity revolution’ will take time to pay off | Financial Times (richmond.edu)
