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This is an Executive Summary of the article “Excess Deaths: An Update — To week ending 22 December 2023 (Week 51); written by CARL HENEGHAN AND TOM JEFFERSON; and published on “Trust the Evidence” on 07/01/2024.
What is the message?
Central Message:
There are concerns regarding excess deaths in England and Wales, attributing them to various factors, including inadequate treatment, lifestyle changes, healthcare access issues, and delays in critical surgeries.
Urgent governmental action and comprehensive investigations are required to address these issues and prevent further avoidable deaths.
One page summary:
The report by Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson analyzes excess deaths in England and Wales up to Week 51 of 2023. The week registered 13,213 deaths, 4.7% higher than the estimated 5-year average. Among these deaths, 269 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate, with 74% recorded as the underlying cause.
The total number of deaths up to Week 51 of 2023 was 573,851, slightly higher than the previous year but lower than the pandemic year of 2020. Excess deaths were noted across various locations, notably in private homes and care homes, with significant increases above the average.
Potential causes for excess deaths include
- inadequate treatment during pandemic restrictions,
- impacts on chronic conditions and serious diseases,
- sedentary lifestyles,
- NHS staffing issues,
- lack of access to emergency services, and
- primary care disruptions.
Despite calls for investigation, there has been no comprehensive review of these causes.
Ambulance response times for life-threatening calls (Category 1) improved slightly but still missed the 8-minute target for half of the cases, with a considerable portion waiting longer than the recommended time.
Analyzing waiting list data revealed concerning delays in essential surgeries, such as cardiothoracic procedures, with only 68% seen within 18 weeks and 295 patients waiting over a year for critical treatments.
Conclusions and Recommendations:
- There’s a pressing need for an investigation into the various causes contributing to excess deaths.
- Urgent attention is required to address issues in NHS staffing, emergency service access, and primary care disruptions.
- Improvements in ambulance response times and reducing waiting lists for critical surgeries are imperative to prevent unnecessary deaths.
