Health leaders warn of pressure on NHS with one in 50 people in England testing positive for coronavirus
Site Editor:
Joaquim Cardoso MSc
Health Transformation — institute for research, strategy and advisory
October 8, 2022
Financial Times
Leke Oso Alabi and Sarah Neville in London
Octoeber 7, 2022
Covid-19 infections in England have returned to levels last seen in mid-August after the peak of the summer wave, threatening to put added strain on the health service in the coming months.
- An estimated one in 50 people tested positive in England in the week to September 24,
- up from one in 65 in the previous week,
according to the latest Covid-19 infection survey by the Office for National Statistics published on Friday.
Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland
- about one in 40 tested positive in the week to September 26,
- up from one in 80 a week earlier, the survey showed.
The UK Health Security Agency said that a number of new types of Omicron variant were circulating, all at a low level, …
… but some believed to have a degree of “immune escape”, meaning a person’s immune system can no longer recognise or fight this type of coronavirus.
It was possible the new variants were fuelling the current rise in infections but “it is likely that other factors are contributing”, the UKHSA added.
Sarah Crofts, deputy director for the Covid-19 infection survey, warned that among the over-70s there had been “a marked increase in infections in England this week, …
… a trend which we will closely monitor as the winter months progress”.
Crofts noted that beyond England, where infections had now reached levels last seen in mid-August, the picture remained mixed.
The trend was less clear in Wales and Scotland.
In Wales, the number of people testing positive rose modestly to 63,400 in the week to September 26 from 62,900 in the week before.
However, the infection rate remained flat at one in 50 people.
In Scotland, the estimated number of people testing positive was
- 113,000 in the week to September 24
- down from 117,100 in the week to September 20 — equating to about one in 45 people.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said it was striking that the ONS data showed the highest prevalence and the steepest rise in the over-70s, “by far the most vulnerable age group, especially if unvaccinated”.
The prevalence of infection was now above 2 per cent and although levels were still considerably lower than last winter there had, at least in England, been a steady rise in recent weeks, he pointed out.
The latest data from the Health Security Agency indicated a 45 per cent week-on-week increase in hospital admissions, he added.
The latest data from the Health Security Agency indicated a 45 per cent week-on-week increase in hospital admissions, he added.
Woolhouse said: “It is difficult to know whether or not this is the beginning of a significant winter wave of infection in the UK. So it is important that the survey data continue to be monitored very closely, and that surveillance for new variants continues.”
… It is difficult to know whether or not this is the beginning of a significant winter wave of infection in the UK.
So it is important that the survey data continue to be monitored very closely, and that surveillance for new variants continues.”
NHS Providers, which represents health organisations across the country, sounded the alarm about the effect of a rise in infections on the health service.
Saffron Cordery, interim chief executive, said hospital admissions had soared by a third over the past week, worrying trust leaders.
Nearly 10,000 people are in hospital with Covid — up by nearly a third from last week — and the number of patients on ventilators was “creeping up”, she warned.
Covid-related NHS staff absences were also increasing.
…hospital admissions had soared by a third over the past week, worrying trust leaders.
Originally published at https://www.ft.com on October 7, 2022.
Names mentioned:
Sarah Crofts, deputy director for the Covid-19 infection survey,
Prof Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh
Saffron Cordery, interim chief executive
