the health strategist
research institute for health strategy
and digital health
Joaquim Cardoso MSc.
Chief Research and Strategy Officer (CRSO),
Chief Editor and Senior Advisor
August 21, 2023
Central message:
The decision on when to get the next COVID-19 booster shot requires a thoughtful approach.
- Waiting for the updated vaccine formulation that aligns better with current variants …
- … and timing it strategically to coincide with the anticipated case peak could provide enhanced protection and greater overall benefit.
One page summary
In the midst of an uptick in COVID-19 cases and the impending start of a new school year, the question on many minds is when to schedule the next COVID-19 booster shot. According to experts, the answer is not to rush — waiting another month or two could be a wise decision.
In June, an advisory panel to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposed that the next iteration of COVID-19 vaccines should target the omicron XBB.1.5 variant. Consequently, major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax are hard at work updating, testing, and mass-producing these new vaccines. These vaccines will require official authorization from the FDA, and they are projected to be available to the public by late September or early October.
Dr. Paul Sax, Clinical Director of Infectious Diseases at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, advises patience. He suggests that for most individuals, waiting for the updated vaccine is the sensible choice. There are two primary reasons to exercise patience: the new vaccine will be more compatible with the current virus variants in circulation, and it will enhance protection during the anticipated peak of COVID-19 cases, typically observed between December and February.
The prevailing strains of coronavirus infecting individuals are largely derived from or linked to the XBB.1.5 variant. This aligns well with the decision to target the omicron XBB.1.5 variant, as noted by Trevor Bedford, a professor at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center. The vaccine is anticipated to provide enhanced protection against EG.5, another significant variant in the United States, even though it may not be as effective due to some additional mutations.
Dr. David Boulware from the University of Minnesota Medical School adds that the new vaccine’s improved alignment with circulating variants may not only mitigate severe illness but also reduce the risk of infection itself. In essence, a closer match between the vaccine and the circulating virus strains enhances the probability of regaining protection against infection.
Timing also plays a vital role.
Waiting a month or two for the updated vaccine allows individuals to maximize their defenses during the historically high case periods, which generally occur between December and February. Antibodies produced by vaccination or past infection wane over time, with the highest protection observed within the initial three months. As Dr. Sax points out, while case numbers are rising currently, they tend to peak in the late fall and winter, a pattern observed over the past few years.
Individuals who have recently recovered from COVID-19 are advised to delay getting the new booster shot. Since their bodies are already producing elevated levels of antibodies due to the recent infection, the additional benefit from the vaccine is limited during this period.
For those concerned about their immediate risk of contracting COVID-19, maintaining tried-and-true preventive measures is essential. Avoiding large crowds, wearing high-quality masks such as N95, KN95, or KF94 in indoor public settings, and ensuring proper ventilation are recommended steps to minimize the risk of infection.
This is a one page summary of the article “Originally reproduced at https://www.seattletimes.com on August 10, 2023.”, published originally at the The New York Times, and authored by Dana G. Smith
