Generative AI Outpacing Human Performance Predictions (Chart 2)

the health strategist
institute for strategic health transformation
& digital health

Joaquim Cardoso MSc.


Chief Research and Strategy Officer (CRSO),
Chief Editor and Senior Advisor

September 19, 2023

The path to achieving human-level performance has significantly shortened. According to this chart, generative AI is projected to reach a median level of human performance across various technical capabilities by the close of this decade.

Furthermore, it is expected to rival the top 25 percent of individuals in these tasks by 2040 at the latest.

Remarkably, this acceleration means that in certain instances, it could achieve this level of competence 40 years sooner than what experts had previously estimated.

Originally published at https://www.mckinsey.com

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