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Joaquim Cardoso MSc.
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January 14, 2024
This is an excerpt of the publication “Global Risks Report 2024”, published by the World Economic Forum, on January 2024″
1.A deteriorating global outlook
Looking back at the events of 2023, plenty of developments captured the attention of people around the world — while others received minimal scrutiny.
Vulnerable populations grappled with lethal conflicts, from Sudan to Gaza and Israel, alongside record-breaking heat conditions, drought, wildfires and flooding.
Societal discontent was palpable in many countries, with news cycles dominated by polarization, violent protests, riots and strikes.
Although globally destabilizing consequences — such as those seen at the initial outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war or the COVID-19 pandemic — were largely avoided, the longer-term outlook for these developments could bring further global shocks.
As we enter 2024, 2023–2024 GRPS results highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world over the next two years that is expected to worsen over the next decade (Figure A).
Surveyed in September 2023, the majority of respondents (54%) anticipate some instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes, while another 30% expect even more turbulent conditions.
The outlook is markedly more negative over the 10-year time horizon, with nearly two-thirds of respondents expecting a stormy or turbulent outlook.
FIGURE A Short and long-term global outlook
“Which of the following best characterizes your outlook for the world over the following time periods?”
Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023–2024.
Note The percentages in the graph may not add up to 100% because figures have been rounded up/down.
… the majority of respondents (54%) anticipate some instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes, while another 30% expect even more turbulent conditions.
In this year’s report, we contextualize our analysis through four structural forces that will shape the materialization and management of global risks over the next decade.
These are longer-term shifts in the arrangement of and relationship between four systemic elements of the global landscape:
- Trajectories relating to global warming and related consequences to Earth systems
(Climate change)
- Changes in the size, growth and structure of populations around the world
(Demographic bifurcation).
- Developmental pathways for frontier technologies
(Technological acceleration).
- Material evolution in the concentration and sources of geopolitical power
(Geostrategic shifts).
A new set of global conditions is taking shape across each of these domains and these transitions will be characterized by uncertainty and volatility.
As societies seek to adapt to these changing forces, their capacity to prepare for and respond to global risks will be affected.
