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Joaquim Cardoso MSc.
Servant Leader, Chief Research & Strategy Officer (CRSO),
Editor in Chief and Senior Advisor
January 26, 2024
This executive summary is based on the article “Predictions for the Workplace of 2025, Revisited”, published by MIT Sloan and written by Lynda Gratton on January 16, 2024.
What is the message?
The article reflects on predictions made in 2009 about the workplace of 2025, examining what proved accurate, where there were misjudgments, and lessons learned through the process.
It explores the impact of global forces, technology, and societal changes on work dynamics.
ONE PAGE SUMMARY
What are the key points?
Fragmentation and Isolation: Predictions of a future marked by fragmentation and isolation have materialized, influenced by factors such as migration to megacities, smaller family units, and passive leisure activities, supporting the notion that social and geographical disconnects affect work realities.
Positive Connectivity: The positive scenario emphasized co-creation and connectivity, showcasing examples of collaborative work enabled by technology. However, the actual landscape revealed the feasibility of collaborative work, albeit not exactly as envisioned, with freelancers facing challenges in unregulated, low-wage gig work.
Flexibility and Social Engagement: Anticipated needs for flexibility and social engagement in 2009 are now central themes in today’s work agenda. Employees globally demand reimagined work structures in terms of location and timing, emphasizing the importance of autonomy and flexibility.
Technology Adoption: While the predictions correctly foresaw increased virtual connectivity, there were errors in estimating the speed of technology adoption. Overestimations included the prevalence of avatars and hologram phone calls by 2025, as well as underestimations of the rapid adoption of generative AI.
Global Events and Experimentation: The unforeseen 2020-2023 global pandemic highlighted the need to consider low-probability/high-risk events. Observing others’ experimentation during the pandemic became crucial for adapting to the rapidly changing work landscape.
What are the key examples?
Fragmentation and Isolation: The article introduces fictional personas, like Jill and Amon, to illustrate the challenges of a fragmented and isolated work environment. The contrast between the envisioned positive scenarios and the realities of gig work is highlighted through personas like Miguel and Xui Li.
Conclusion
The article concludes with four valuable lessons for those making predictions about the future of work:
Avoid Myopic Views: Broadly consider multiple forces shaping the future, not solely focusing on technology.
Prepare for Unpredictability: Acknowledge the potential for unpredictable reversals and volatility in economic, political, and technological landscapes.
Learn from Global Events: While global events like the pandemic may be unforeseen, closely observe others’ experimentation and adapt strategies accordingly.
Scenario Planning for Deeper Insight: Utilize scenario planning and persona creation for a nuanced understanding, ensuring adaptability to evolving assumptions.
The predictions for the coming years emphasize the persistent themes of isolation, autonomy, and the increasing role of independent workers, urging organizations to expect the unexpected and be agile in response to evolving workplace dynamics.
To read the original publication, click here.
